Wednesday, November 9, 2011

Calculating Ministry Dropout

Both my MTh and MA studies had much to do with ministry dropout. According to US statistics, one may expect a halving of survival in ministry every ten years -- which is pretty disastrous. Therefore, what are the chances that you (or your minister) should have survived in ministry at this point in time? Take the present year and subtract the year that you started in full-time ministry. In my case, this gives me 28. Divide by 10. Add 1. In my case, this now gives me 3.8. Call this figure y. Now calculate 2^y (your calculator should have an xy button, so you type 2 xy y =). Divide the result by 2. In my case, I now have 6.96. Call this figure z. Now calculate 100 ÷ z. That's your percentage chance of survival -- in my case about 14%. OBSERVATION: Note that statistics outside of the USA might well look better than this. Also, statistics within the USA may vary -- some better, some worse. If you borrow my Scarborough Dropout Formula, do mention this blog.