Leadership South: Affirming the Consequent

Thursday, January 31, 2008

Affirming the Consequent

“Affirming the consequent” is a fallacy that is crucial to Christian leadership theory. Here’s a simple example of the fallacy: 1. If Joe lives to be 100, then Joe ate cherries. 2. Joe has lived to be 100. 3. Therefore Joe ate cherries. This is a fallacy because the conclusion may be false even if the premisses (lines 1. and 2.) are true (Mautner T 2000:8). Even if Joe lives to be 100, and even if Joe ate cherries, and even if all persons who live to be 100 ate cherries, there is the possibility that any number of cherry-eaters will only live to be, say, 30 (the real key to longevity may lie elsewhere). The same with leadership theory. Take the previous post, which proposes that, if Joe succeeds in leadership, then Joe had mentors -- and so on. To put it simply, even if a Christian leadership theory advances much evidence in its support, this may prove little, if not dangerously little -- if the fallacy of affirming the consequent is present. QUESTION: What would a theory need in order to avoid this fallacy?

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Welcome

Again and again I have heard that access to Christian leadership thinking in the Global South is awkward. Not only is it hard to obtain the materials, but they are relatively few, and often they are published in languages other than English. Often, also, seminaries in the Global South will not use home-grown materials, but will import books from the Global North, teaching them in the context of their own Global South ethos. But apart from this, there is a real problem of parochialism in the Global North. If you are a seminary student in the Global North, take a look at your required reading. It is likely that 90-100% originates in the Global North.

I have served in leadership at local, regional, national, and international levels, with varied experience. I recently completed an MTh at the South African Theological Seminary in Johannesburg, and an MA at Fuller Theological Seminary in Pasadena, California -- both in the fields of Christian leadership. When I started this blog, I considered that, being in the middle of my research, I could share some of the ideas and issues I am working through -- and perhaps engender some discussion.

In my experience, I would consider that the views of this blog are typically Global South. I consider that my colleagues in ministry would share many of these views. However, it stands to reason that this will not be so in every case.

I have used abbreviated references in some posts (e.g. Jinkins M 2002:23), which refers to the author, initial(s), year of publication, and page. In most cases, this should be sufficient for readers to locate the source.